Information Systems Department, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember (ITS), Surabaya, Indonesia
This research aims to develop a system dynamics simulation model and scenario to decrease congestion costs using transit-oriented development (TOD). TOD is the integration of land use and transit to create a community that can walk within walking distance of a transit stop or station. It integrates people, jobs, and services to create efficient, safe, and comfortable services for traveling on foot or by bicycle, transit, or car. As a method to develop the scenario model, system dynamics (SD) is utilized based on the consideration that SD can accommodate the dynamics complexity of several variables influencing the cost of traffic congestion. SD provides a framework to develop a causal loop diagram that allows SD as a tool to test the impact of various strategies and policies that affect the cost of traffic congestion. The novel contributions of this research include: formulating relationships between variables that influence the cost of traffic congestion, building the dynamic behavior of congestion cost as well as developing scenario to reduce the congestion cost using transit-oriented development (TOD) program. This TOD program includes encouraging housing locations near transit facilities, incorporating retail into regional development to attract customers from both TOD and main roads, as well as improving compatibility and connectivity of transportation systems. Some important factors that affect the cost of traffic congestion are congestion time per day and gross domestic product per capita. This congestion cost and the average daily traffic of cars will influence the annual congestion cost. The simulation results of the scenario model show that the congestion cost per hour per capita is projected to decrease by an average difference of 53%. Congestion costs per hour per capita after applying TOD are projected to be around IDR 2025 per hour per capita in 2021 and IDR 451,800 per hour per capita in 2045. Annual congestion costs after implementing TOD are projected to reach IDR 817.2 billion in 2021 and estimated at IDR 1,307 trillion in 2045. Further research that can be developed is congestion pricing that can accommodate pricing strategies to regulate demand and manage congestion without increasing the supply.